It has been awhile since my last post. Just a quick update, I am now joining Liftt as employee 1 to develop a game changing product. Liftt is founded by Paul Chen and Wilson Lee, both serial entrepreneur. I am extremely proud and excited to work under them as I continue to grow my entrepreneurial experience.

In my last blog post, I have talked about my past 2 startup failures. As I promised, this time I will share my thoughts on the importance of pivoting, product and team using some mathematics. Before I start, I just want to get a quick sense of what you think is important to the success of a startup:

In my last blog post, I have talked about my past 2 startup failures. As I promised, this time I will share my thoughts on the importance of pivoting, product and team using some mathematics. Before I start, I just want to get a quick sense of what you think is important to the success of a startup:

To start this blog post, I will share a geeky graph that I have generated to show you how the success rate changes as you pivot:

**Explanation**

In this study, we want to do a simple calculation for the probability of a startup succeeding at least once and how it changes with the number of pivots. In essence, this study uses a simple framework of rolling a dice and asking the question of what are the chances I will get "6" from the dice at least one time.

Let me explain how this graph is generated. I used a one-time startup success rate, q. Basically, q is the probability of success for a startup assuming the startup doesn't pivot at all. Followed by that, I calculated what are the chances of all my trials (i.e. pivots + the first trial) will fail. Finally:

*Probability of at least succeeding once = 100% - chances of all trials failing*

I considered the success rate of 10%, 15%, 20% and 30% in the graph. The one-time success rate is considered to be different because the team and the product of a startup will undoubtedly affect the one-time success rate of a startup. For example, a team of people who have exited their companies will have a higher one-time success rate, e.g. q = 20%. Typically, for first-time founders, q would be around 10% (or maybe even lower).

The graph shown illustrate one fundamental concepts. The more you pivot, the chances of hitting at least one success increases. This is very intuitive. But, there are surprising insights in this graph, which are documented below.

From Quora's Answer and this simple calculation, it is obvious that most successful startups will go through a pivoting phase. A good question to ask would be: when and how should you do a pivot? This is what we will be covering in the next post.

Side note: Build-2-Master do provide startup planning to help you improve your one-time success rate. We can improve your overall odds of success.

The graph shown illustrate one fundamental concepts. The more you pivot, the chances of hitting at least one success increases. This is very intuitive. But, there are surprising insights in this graph, which are documented below.

**Interesting Insights**- If your one-time success rate, q is 10%, after you pivoted 9 times, you will only have a 60% chances of hitting success once. (Kinda depressing isn't it?)
- If you can double your one-time success rate from 10% to 20%, after pivoting twice, you will have 50% chances of landing success once (vs approximately 28%)!
- The probability of hitting success once actually flattens outs as you increase the number of pivots.

**Take away message?**- If you want to improve your probability of success, then you have to get ready to pivot.
- Also, you want to increase your one-time success rate over time. This can be achieved by doing multiple things like:

- Building or growing a strong team

- Learning from failures and avoiding same mistakes

- Have a great product or improve your product

- Implement operation processes (like sales and marketing)

- Help your startup to stay focus on a meaningful vision

- Reduce internal conflict among members - Pivoting is not the only way to improve your overall success rate. Improving your one-time success rate is another method.

**A Final Thought**From Quora's Answer and this simple calculation, it is obvious that most successful startups will go through a pivoting phase. A good question to ask would be: when and how should you do a pivot? This is what we will be covering in the next post.

Side note: Build-2-Master do provide startup planning to help you improve your one-time success rate. We can improve your overall odds of success.